April 2018 Recruiting in Germany Bulletin
Listed Under: News & Bulletins
Welcome to our April 2018 Recruiting in Germany Bulletin. This latest update indicates a continued demand for key skills in Germany, and we highlight some of the economic key trends leading commentators are predicting.
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Economic Commentary - what they are saying:
GERMAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS in April 2018
The Germany economy looks highly likely to grow in 2018 on the back of a strong labour market, rising wages and low-interest rates that are boosting the private sector economy.
The renewal of the grand coalition in Germany brought a return to stability, and the coalition’s proposed fiscal stimulus could well propel private and government consumption this year. Moreover, wages are likely to grow robustly, boosted by the collective wage agreement for industrial employees in the Baden-Württemberg state—this should have a spillover effect in other states.
Industrial production is expected to grow some 3.1% in 2018.Fixed investment and external demand are also expected to remain resilient.
House building across Germany is continuing to grow rapidly and will certainly increase further going into 2019.
Consumer expenditure, supported by rising wages, should further fuel growth. German consumers are seemingly still confident that the economy is going to grow further.
Downside risks persist due to the strong euro and rising protectionism in the U.S, possible trade sanctions and even a trade war. The USA is an important export market for German goods, especially motor cars.The growing threat of protectionist measures comes as the German economy enjoys a consumer-led upswing boosted by a rebound in exports and company investment.
Analysts seem to see GDP expanding 2.4% in 2018, unchanged from the March estimate, and 1.9% in 2019.Tax income has never been better so the coffers are full at the treasury and for this year fiscal policy will again be to follow a zero deficit.
Figures just released show the Germany exported goods to the value of 104.7 billion euros in February 2018. Based on this provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office also reports that German exports increased by 2.4% in February 2018 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports fell by 3.2% compared with January 2018.
The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.4 billion euros in February 2018. In February 2017, the surplus amounted to +19.8 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 19.2 billion euros in February 2018.
The German chamber of commerce said on Wednesday that U.S. import tariffs on steel could trigger a trade war with major trading partners, which analysts say could cut growth in Germany's economy by up to 1 percentage point.
The U.S. is Germany’s most important export destination after the rest of the European Union, and exports still account for roughly 40 percent of German economic output.
The German Government
Angela Merkel was re-elected as Chancellor on 14 March 2018, ending an over five-month cycle of political uncertainty, where right-wing parties gained a lot of ground and with Frau Merkel losing some of her reputation and power.
The coalition deal with the Social Democrats (SPD) encompasses some additional spending measures but is unlikely to alter Germany’s fiscal stance, despite a change at the finance ministry, where the SPD has taken control of the second most important inner cabinet seat.
Compiled using various news and data sources April 2018